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In 1956 M. King Hubbert, then with Shell Oil Company, predicted a peak in domestic US oil production in early 1970's.
He was roundly criticized by industry spokesmen, but obviously his prediction came true.
Today the event in 1971 is called Hubbert's Peak in recognition of his prediction.
Professor Kenneth Deffeyes has updated the work of Hubbert to consider world oil production
and in 2001 published his prediction of a peak in world oil production in 2008.
www.princeton.edu/hubbert/the-peak.html 
Since that prediction there has been a mountain of published condemnaton and learned articles refuting the work; 
just as there was with H. King Hubbert's earlier prediction. 
However, the US Energy Information Agency now says the peak occured in 2005. www.eia.doe.gov/ipm/t11d.xls
The Oil & Gas Journal places the peak in 2006. Notice that both dates occured earlier than Deffeys forecast. 
Notwithstanding the recent up-tick in production from tight rocks (the media refers to this as Shale Oil), the 
long-term viability of this tight rock production must yet be proven. 
It is highly probable his will be a secondary rise and subsequent decline just as Prudhoe Bay was. 
Dr. Ken Deffeys is no longer a maligned fear-monger, he has become a prophet or at least a visionary.

 
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